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Economic downturn on the domestic market?

Unstable condition of the countries of the eurozone, which are the main trade partners of the domestic economy, as well as global threats from developing countries may have a negative impact on the economic growth of Poland.

According to Senior Economist in the World Bank Leszek Kąsek, we should not expect significant changes in the economic situation of the global or European economy in the nearest quarters. We envisage that this year will be better from the previous one – says investor Leszek Kąsek during the talk with the news organization Newseria. The previous year was especially poor. We expect increased growth by around 0.5 percentage point in comparison to 2015 in both developing countries and those which are more advanced – adds Kąsek.

 

As it may be observed in the forecast of the World Bank prepared in January, the global economic growth will reach 2.9 per cent this year, that is exactly by 0.5. percentage point more than in the previous year, however, still by 0.4. percentage point less than in the forecast from June 2015. When it comes to the economy of Poland, the growth will be driven substantially by internal factors and private consumption. It will be mainly due to enhancing labor market and the program "Family 500+". Investments will also increase significantly but at a pace not faster than 5 per cent. Hence, we expect that the economic growth in Poland will amount to around 3.7 per cent this year and there can be a slight downturn in the following year – says Leszek Kąsek.

 

In April, the growth forecast envisaged for Poland this year was maintained at the level of 3.7 per cent. However, it was decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 3.5 per cent for the next two years. There can also be a situation that this increase will be higher under more favorable circumstances.

 

The economy of Poland is naturally connected with the European economy, especially with the countries of the eurozone. We concentrate the majority of our export there and the economic situation in Western Europe is quite stable. We cannot exclude that the growth pace will be slightly higher than 3.5 per cent. It is a cautious forecast. Undoubtedly, we will also be glad if the growth comes up to 4 per cent – says Leszek Kąsek.

 

The internal situation in Poland will be also crucial, especially fiscal discipline in the nearest years as well as the condition of the bank system in case of converting Swiss franc loans. However – as Leszek Kąsek emphasizes – the condition of big economies such as Russia, Brazil and China will be also of great importance. The Russian economy is to decrease this year by 0.7 per cent whereas the Brazilian one – by 2.5 per cent. The Chinese economy, in turn, will increase by 6.7 per cent, that is more than twice as slow as in the previous decade. It is crucial how strong this downturn will be on these big markets. The main factor of risk is the situation when these economies slow down synchronically. It means that we deal with the lower increase just as in case of China or even with recession like in case of Brazil or Russia and it happens simultaneously. It is the most important question when it comes to the global economy this year – sums up Senior Economist of the World Bank.

 


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