Poland's economic growth in 2013 is to amount to 1,2 per cent, in 2014 – 2,6 per cent. These better results will stem from national demand growth. According to the data of the Institute for Market Economics (Polish: IBnGR), Poland remains in the lead of EU countries as far as economic results are concerned.
In the second quarter of 2013 the economy in our country was growing by 0,7 per cent in year-to -year comparison. This result is better than in the former quarter, since this value came to 0,5 per cent. The former quarter was probably the first one, in which GDP decrease rate stopped, which means it is no longer decreasing from quarter to quarter and will be increasing now. These are our predicitons – comments dr Bohdan Wyżnikiewicz, Vice-President, Institiute for Market Economics.
According to IBnGR, in the third quarter economic growth will reach 1,5 per cent, and in the fourth one – already 1,9 per cent. This growth means that the condition of Polish economy is gradually improving. Consequently, the whole year will end with economic growth, in our assessment, on the level of 1,2 per cent. It is a good information, but we cannot count on spectacular growth of economic activity. This growth will be moderate, slow and will last a few years – informs dr Wyżnikiewicz.
This boom is caused mainly by national demand. The Institute assumes that its growth in this year will come to 0,4 per cent, and in the next one – 1,6 per cent.
Overcoming the slowdown is to be slow, but permanent. The moods of both producers from all the siginificant economic sectors and consumers are improving. The pessimism, which prevailed till now, is already much lower, and signs of optimism are apparent here and there – remarks dr Bohdan Wyżnikiewicz.
The expert also emphasises that economic results will not be influenced by seasonal factors. Seasonality is very distinct in Polish economy, but in this case the improvement of moods and results will take place regardless of seasonality – he says.
We also should pay attention to the position of Poland in the European Union. We are decidedly in the lead as far as economic growth is concerned, but also, significantly, we are not far from reaching EU average GDP per citizen. The recession in the EU has moved Poland up in income ranking – comments dr Wyżnikiewicz. He also remarks that countries which are ahead of us are mainly smaller Baltic states, in which both fast growth and slumps are noted.